Message
Tropical Storm Karl heading towards Belize (As at 3:00 pm September 14th, 2010)

The Situation
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Belize. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

At 3:00 pm Tropical Storm Karl was centered near latitude 18.3 N, Longitude 84.2 W. This position is about 274 miles east of Corozal Town. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph moving 15mph and further strengthening is likely to occur.

Prognosis
Tropical Storm Karl is expected to pour 4 to 6 inches of rainfall on Belize, which increases the risk of flooding in the North. The present forecast track takes the system just to the North of Belize with landfall Midday tomorrow (Wednesday).

National Actions
The National Disaster Coordinator of NEMO Belize has provided the following update on their readiness actions:

•    Citizens along the coast and on the Cayes are encouraged to evacuate early, once NEMO declares a phase.
•    Motorists are advised that increased rainfall can cause flash flooding and render roads impassable.
•    The general public is strongly advised to: Review your emergency plans (family, community, business)
•    Ensure you have adequate food, water and medicine
•    Confirm preparations if seeking shelter.
•    Know where you are going and make sure to inform relatives and friends of your plans, whereabouts and intended destination.

The public is further advised to listen to their local radio and television stations for further advisories from the NEMO and the National Met Service.
The NEMO Office remains on high alert as it continues to monitor Tropical Storm Karl. Public Officers are advised to be on standby in the event that they need to report to their assigned emergency duties.

Regional Response
The CDEMA Coordinating Unit has maintained communication with Belize and continues to monitor the situation. The CDEMA Coordinating Unit stands ready to provide response support should this become necessary.

Contact has also been made with the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to provide analysis on the storm’s development and probable effects on the islands for response scenario planning.
The Regional Response Mechanism is hereby placed on standby.

Note to Public
CDEMA wishes to takes this opportunity to remind that the 2010 hurricane season has been forecasted to have a well above average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall according to Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University (August 4, 2010).

The season is expected to see about 10 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 18 named storms (average is 9.6), 90 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major hurricanes (Category 3-4-5, average is 2.3) and 13 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). Of note is that the forecast anticipates approximately double the average number of events in 2010. So far there have been 11 named storms for the season.

Contact Details
The CDEMA CU 24hr contact number is 1 246 425 0386