Message:
Tropical Storm Earl Rapidly Heading Toward the Leeward Islands (As at 5.00p.m. August 28, 2010)

The Situation:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and Montserrat. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

At 5.00 p.m.  today, August 28, 2010 the centre of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.5 North and longitude 54.2 West moving towards the west at 23 mph (37km/hr).
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/hr) with higher gusts.  Earl is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. A NOAA P-3 reconnaissance aircraft is expected to be in the area soon and give a better estimate of the initial intensity and size of Earl.

Prognosis:
Tropical Storm Earl is expected to take a gradual turn to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed expected on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Earl will approach the Northern Leeward Islands on Sunday.

National Actions:
The National Disaster Coordinators of CDEMA Participating States have provided the following updates on their readiness actions.

Anguilla:
The Government of Anguilla conducted its 72 hour National Disaster Management briefing on August 27, 2010. All agencies are on standby. Shelter managers have been contacted. The National Disaster Office is also following up with large hotels with respect to contingency planning given for the tourism sector.

Antigua and Barbuda:
As sub-regional focal point for this area within the CDEMA system, the National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) has been in communication with the CDEMA Coordinating Unit during the day. The staff of NODS has issued a press release on Tropical Storm Earl. The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services has advised persons in low-lying areas to step up readiness actions as Tropical Storm Earl approaches. The District Disaster Coordinators have been placed on stand-by. Public works has pre-positioned vehicles and equipment in the event of flooding in known flood-prone areas. NODS continues to monitor the situation.

St. Kitts and Nevis:
Following the 5:00 a.m. Advisory, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) issued disaster management (safety) information to the Public via several local radio stations. A Pre-Strike Meeting was held with various entities at the NEMA Headquarters. A  Pre-Strike meeting is scheduled for 5:00 a.m. at the Nevis Disaster Management Department. The National Emergency Management Agency continues to monitor and will issue additional information to the Public.

Virgin Islands:
The Department of Disaster Management continues the issuing of public information which was initiated during the latter half of the week. Emphasis has been placed on the notification of mariners and in the clearing of construction sites in the islands. The staff of the Department of Disaster Management has also alerted members of the national system. The Tourist Board of the Virgin Islands has activated its plan and has placed tourism stakeholders on alert. The DDM has advised residents of the Virgin Islands to complete readiness actions by noon Sunday August 29, 2010.  The Department of Disaster Management continues to monitor the situation.

Regional Response:
The CDEMA Coordinating Unit has maintained communication with threatened States and continues to monitor the situation. The CDEMA Coordinating Unit stands ready to provide response support should this become necessary.
Contact has also been made with the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology to provide analysis on the storm’s development and probable effects on the islands for response scenario planning.

The Regional Response Mechanism is hereby placed on standby.

Note to Public:
CDEMA wishes to takes this opportunity to remind that the 2010 hurricane season has been forecasted to have a well above average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall according to Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray of the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University (August 4, 2010).

The season is expected to  see about 10 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 18 named storms (average is 9.6), 90 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major hurricanes (Category 3-4-5, average is 2.3) and 13 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). Of note is that the forecast anticipates approximately double the average number of events in 2010. So far there have been 5 named storms for the season.

Contact Details: The CDEMA CU 24hr contact number is 1 246 425 0386