Message: Erika expected to reach Leeward Islands tonight. Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands, Monsterrat and St. Kitts and Nevis.

THE SITUATION:

At 2.00p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 58.2 West, and approximately 245 miles east southeast of Antigua. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles and primarily to the east of the centre. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph and a westward to west-north westward motion is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are reported as near 45mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

PROGNOSIS:

The Meterological Service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a tropical storm warning for Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands, Monsterrat and St. Kitts and Nevis.

The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should closely monitor the progress of Erika.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin Islands on Thursday. Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Friday morning. In addition, seas are rough and are expected to peak near 9 feet during the passage of Erika.

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services has also reported that a flash flood watch may be posted later today for Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Monsterrat and St. Kitts and Nevis. In addition, seas are rough and are expected to peak near 9 feet during the passage of Erika and small craft warnings for mariners and sea bathers remain in effect, and small craft operators should stay in port as seas could peak near 10 feet with the passage of Erika.

NATIONAL ACTIONS:

The National Disaster Offices (NDOs) of the threatened States have reported ongoing monitoring of the progress of the system and that they are fully engaged in planning and preparations for Tropical Storm Erika. Residents have been advised to bring their tropical storm preparations to a speedy conclusion and to continue to monitor information from the meteorological offices and advisories from NDOs and other official sources.

The Meteorological Service has advised residents living in flood prone and low lying areas to move to higher ground. Warnings have all also been issued to mariners and sea bathers.

Anguilla

The Department of Disaster Management in Anguilla has reported that government offices will close at 2:30pm, and shelters will be opened later this evening. They have also advised that the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) will be partially activated this afternoon.

Antigua and Barbuda

The National Office of Disaster Service (NODS) Antigua has reported that there will be a partial activation of the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) at 3:00pm this afternoon, and shelters will be opened at 5:00pm. The National Disaster Coordinator indicated that key agencies are in a state of readiness and contact has been made with partners who remain on alert.

British Virgin Islands

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in the British Virgin Islands has reported that contact has been made with all relevant emergency response agencies to ascertain their state of readiness. The DDM has also indicated that some departments have activated their emergency plans. The DDM has advised that the Deputy Governor has been briefed and there will be another meeting with the Deputy Governor later this afternoon.

Montserrat

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) in Montserrat has reported that all local emergency response agencies are on alert. The Emergency Policy Group met earlier today, and that a partial activation of the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) is expected at 6.00 p.m.

St. Kitts and Nevis

The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has reported that they are continuing to monitor the system closely and remain on standby.

REGIONAL ACTIONS:

The Regional Response Mechanism continues to be on alert; this includes the CARICOM Operational Support Team (COST), CARICOM Disaster and Assessment Coordination Team (CDAC), and the CARICOM Disaster Response Unit (CDRU) through the Regional Security System (RSS). The Eastern Caribbean Development Partner Group on Disaster Management remains on alert.

The CDEMA Coordinating Unit has received a briefing today from the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) on the status of the system and an outlook for the next 48 hours. It should be noted that CIMH is not a forecasting agency but provides these briefings to the CDEMA CU to facilitate scenario planning at the regional and national levels.

CDEMA will continue to monitor the system and provide updates as necessary.

The public is advised to

• Monitor radio or television and other official sources of information for progress reports
• Update your personal family preparedness plan and action items according to that plan
• The website www.weready.org provides additional information

CONTACT DETAILS: The CDEMA CU 24-hour contact number 1(246) 434-4880