CDEMA Information Note #5 - Hurricane Irma - as of 7:00 pm on September 5th, 2017

MESSAGE: Potentially Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Nearing the Northern Leeward Islands while Tropical Storm Jose forms over the open Atlantic

THE SITUATION:

The latest advisory issued by the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) in Miami, Florida at 5:00 PM AST (2100 UTC), reports that Irma remains an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. The distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 59.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).

A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin tonight and continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).Hurricane Irma forecast track, September 5, 2017 - NHC

 

10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC

Tropical Storm Jose, the 10th named storm of the season formed over the Atlantic on Tuesday September 05, 2017. At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 40.6 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a movement toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly faster rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Jose could become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). TS Jose is not a threat to land at the moment.

SUMMARY OF WARNINGS AND WATCHES IN EFFECT – HURRICANE IRMA:

Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

Impact Analysis by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)

The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) provided CDEMA with an impact analysis based on the forecast track of Hurricane Irma at 1:30pm, Tuesday September 5, 2017.

FLOOD/LANDSLIDE: Satellite-based rainfall estimates show 24 hr rainfall in excess of 300 mm. Rainfall amounts likely to be enhanced due to local topographic conditions. Intense rainfall activity will lead to flash flooding, dangerous river conditions, landslides and debris flows. Flooding is likely to be significantly enhanced within coastal bays due to expected runoff, wave run up, storm surge and tides.TS Jose forecast track, September 5, 2017 - NHC

WIND: Winds large at Hurricane force with extremely strong gusts in areas of thunderstorms. Hurricane force winds are very dangerous especially in elevated areas and will produce significant damages to infrastructure and life threatening conditions.

WAVES: Significant wave heights likely to exceed 10 metres mainly in the Northern Leeward Islands. Storm surge in excess of 4 m, rough seas and damaging waves are imminent, leading to inundation and damages along coastlines and to coastal infrastructure especially in the northern Leeward Islands. Areas to the south could experience rough sea conditions.

In summary: Irma, now a Category five (5) Hurricane is expected to move into the Northern Leeward Islands as a DANGEROUS storm Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will have a major impact on the Leeward Islands. The Northern Leeward Islands should prepare for Hurricane force condition which will be accompanied by very strong winds, high storm surge and heavy rainfall. The territories of Anguilla, Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, St. Maarten, St. Kitts and Nevis and Virgin Islands are under a Hurricane Warning.

Regional Readiness Actions – CDEMA Coordinating Unit

Second Meeting of the Regional Response Mechanism (RRM) Partners September 5, 2017

The second meeting of the RRM Partners was convened today, Tuesday September 5, 2017 at 1:15pm at the CDEMA Coordinating Unit. The meeting was chaired by CDEMA’s Executive Director and Programme Manager for Preparedness and Response. Approximately forty five (45) participants from regional and international donor, humanitarian and development agencies were represented. CDEMA CU presented an Operational Plan with potential scenarios and Pre-Impact Analysis of vulnerable areas in the threatened CDEMA Participating States. CDEMA will convene another meeting tomorrow, Wednesday September 6, 2017 at 1:00pm (1300 hours) AST.

The following updates were provided at the RRM meeting:

Regional Institutional Updates

The Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA)

Caribbean Development Bank (CDB)

Caribbean Development Fund (CDF)

Caribbean Water and Wastewater Association (CWWA)

Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS)

Regional Security System (RSS)

CARICOM IMPACS

International Institutions Updates:

European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO)

Global Affairs Canada (GAC)

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)

United Kingdom (DFID)

United Nations (UN) Agencies

a. PAHO

b. UNDP

c. UNFPA

d. UNICEF

e. UN OCHA

f. UN WOMEN

g. USAID OFDA

Sub Regional Actions:

Jamaica – Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management

Trinidad and Tobago – Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management

The CDEMA CU will continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Irma and provide updates as necessary.

CONTACT DETAILS: The CDEMA CU 24-hour contact number 1(246) 434-4880

The public is advised to…